In October 2025, inflation continued to slow to 10.9% yoy. In monthly terms, prices rose 0.9%. This is according to data published by the State Statistics Service of Ukraine.
Due to a more moderate slowdown in raw food price increases, the actual inflation trajectory was running slightly above the forecast trajectory published in the October Inflation Report. Core inflation, on the other hand, was a tad below the forecast because of a sharper slowdown in the growth of non-food and services prices.
Annual pace of growth in raw food prices continued to slow, to 15.2% yoy
The fall in vegetable prices deepened (to -21.5% yoy), primarily thanks to borshch vegetables, while the decline in the price of tomatoes decelerated and the growth in cucumber prices resumed. The growth in fruit prices slowed significantly. The rate of increase in the price of flour and eggs continued to drop. Price increases for pork and chicken stabilized, while those for beef slowed marginally. In contrast, prices for cereals and milk rose at a faster pace.
Core inflation continued to decline, to 10.2%
The growth in the prices of processed foods decelerated to 15.6% yoy. Specifically, the increase in prices for some of the dairy products, bread, sunflower oil, and non-alcoholic beverages lost speed. At the same time, the increase in prices of processed fish and seafood picked up.
The growth in the prices of non-food products extended its slowdown, to 1.6% yoy. The drop in clothing and footwear prices deepened.
Services inflation also decelerated, to 13.8%, potentially reflecting a partial easing of labor market mismatches. In particular, price increases slowed for hospital services, personal care, internet, taxi rides, insurance, hotel stays, and more.
Growth in administered prices decelerated slightly, to 10.6% yoy
The slowdown is attributable both to a further deceleration in the increase of tobacco product prices and to a slight cooling of the growth in prices for alcoholic beverages.
Fuel price growth slowed to 3.9%
The slowing was largely due to the base effect, while prices for all fuels held almost steady in October.
Going into the end of the year, inflation is expected to slow further due to sufficient food supply and the NBU’s monetary policy measures to maintain interest in hryvnia assets and the sustainability of the foreign-exchange market.